U.S. Home Price Forecast for 2025: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

U.S. home prices are expected to drop slightly by the end of 2025, with Zillow predicting a 1.4% decline and Redfin projecting a 1% fall. This trend reflects growing inventory and weakened demand due to elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Buyers and sellers alike need to adapt their strategies in this shifting market landscape.

Market Outlook: Prices Set to Decline Slightly

The U.S. housing market, once characterized by steep price climbs and bidding wars, is now showing signs of stabilization — and even slight decline. According to Zillow, home values nationwide are projected to fall by approximately 1.4% by the end of 2025. Redfin offers a similar prediction, expecting a 1% decrease. While this might seem modest compared to previous double-digit price hikes, it marks a clear reversal of trend and could indicate the beginning of a more balanced market. For buyers, this represents a potential opportunity to enter the market on more favorable terms. For sellers, however, it signals the importance of pricing realistically and adjusting expectations.

Inventory on the Rise

A key factor behind the anticipated price drop is the noticeable rise in housing inventory. After years of critically low supply, the number of homes on the market is finally increasing. Realtor.com reports a 30% year-over-year growth in active listings during the spring of 2025. This rise is driven by a combination of new construction completions, reluctant homeowners deciding to list before prices dip further, and investors offloading properties they no longer see as profitable. For buyers, more inventory means less competition and more time to make decisions. For sellers, however, it introduces a challenge: in order to attract offers, properties must stand out — either by being competitively priced, well-staged, or offering incentives such as rate buydowns or help with closing costs.

Buyer Demand Weakens

While inventory is rising, demand has not kept pace. Mortgage rates have remained persistently high throughout early and mid-2025, hovering between 6.5% and 7%. This has had a chilling effect on affordability. The monthly payment on a median-priced home has increased by over 40% compared to three years ago. Many would-be buyers — particularly first-time homeowners — are delaying purchases, hoping for lower rates or price drops in the near future. Some are turning back to renting or exploring multi-generational housing to save money. For active buyers, this means more negotiating power. It also means the ability to include contingencies in offers (such as inspections and financing), which had often been waived during the frenzied market of 2020–2022.

Economic Uncertainty Slows Decisions

The broader economic context is adding further pressure on the housing market. Concerns over inflation, slower GDP growth, job security, and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are all contributing to consumer hesitation. A recent University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that confidence in housing as a good investment has dropped to levels not seen since the early pandemic. Additionally, financial institutions are tightening lending standards, making mortgage approval more difficult, especially for self-employed individuals or those with irregular income. As a result, many Americans are choosing to wait — either to gain more financial stability or to better understand where the market is heading. This creates a slower, more deliberate market cycle, but also one with less emotional decision-making and more thoughtful transactions.

Local Markets Vary Widely

It’s essential to note that real estate is deeply local, and while national averages show a slight decline, individual markets tell different stories. Some of the pandemic boomtowns — including Austin, Boise, and Phoenix — are experiencing more pronounced corrections, with prices down between 3% and 5% year-over-year. These areas saw unsustainable growth and are now recalibrating. In contrast, cities with historically stable pricing — such as Boston, Chicago, and many Midwestern metros — have seen little to no decline, and in some cases, modest increases due to ongoing demand and limited land availability. For buyers and sellers alike, this means it’s vital to look beyond national headlines. Working with a knowledgeable local agent, studying neighborhood-specific data, and understanding local employment and development trends will offer the clearest picture of what to expect.

Final Thoughts: A Cooling but Balanced Market

The projected price declines of 1–1.4% don’t signal a market crash, but rather a normalization after years of volatility. For buyers, especially those who can afford current interest rates or who plan to refinance later, this may be a window of opportunity to purchase with less competition and more options. For sellers, success now depends on smart pricing, presentation, and flexibility. Incentives such as seller-paid closing costs or pre-inspections can help sway hesitant buyers. Ultimately, the 2025 housing market offers a chance for both sides to engage in more balanced, informed transactions. Staying up to date with market data, keeping financing plans flexible, and focusing on long-term value will be key to navigating the months ahead.

Ralph Schiavone

HLS Group, Inc.

1611 Pomona Road, suite 207 Corona, CA 92878

Email: rschiavone@hlsgroupinc.com

Phone: (714) 315-0027

HLS Group, Inc.; Ralph Schiavone-Broker and President is your full-service real estate agency; specializing in all aspects of residential real estate purchase, sale with over 30-years’ experience and extensive knowledge and understanding of real estate finance. We are Certified Probate Real Estate Specialists, short-sale experts, REO-agent certified and fully MLS compliant. HLS Group, Inc. and Ralph Schiavone offer a one-stop opportunity for prospective buyers and sellers to gain information about the purchase/sale process from identifying a property for purchase to placing a property for sale. We negotiate with confidence on behalf of our clients and work seemlessly with finance professionals during the purchase/sale process.

The markets of Southern California are uniquely dynamic with many opportunities to both purchase or sell a home. The biggest keys to success are patience and appropriate market position. Know your market and how you fit within it. That’s where using Ralph Schiavone and the agents at HLS Group, Inc. will serve you best, by providing you the tools for informed decision-making.

Currently inventory is somewhat tight and communication is key to ensuring timely property opportunities. We at HLS Group, Inc. pride ourselves on strong and comprehensive communication: from the initial interview through close of escrow and thereafter. At HLS Group, Inc. a successful transaction is defined as facilitating the client’s property desire, in the area/neighborhood they wish to live, while using the most appropriate financing strategy, for the best outcome possible.

Customer service is key at HLS Group, Inc. Our relationship and support do not end once your purchase/sale is completed. We’ve built our reputation as a reliable resource in our community and are available for you in the future whenever you feel we can be of service. We look forward to working with you.